AUGUST 13, 2009 -- According to newly released forecasts from industry analyst firm CIR (search Lightwave for CIR Inc.), the market for telecom transceiver and transponder modules using SONET/SDH or WDM technology will reach just under $1.1 billion by 2014 as the move from TDM to WDM technology accelerates. The numbers are from a soon-to-be released report titled "Telecommunications Transceiver/Transponder Markets: 2009-2013," which will be available on the CIR web site.
CIR has also recently published a separate report that analyzes the market for transceivers in data communications. The new report provides the firm's latest forecasts of transceivers and transponders for the public networking environment for the years 2009 to 2014.
By 2012, WDM transceivers/transponders will have overtaken sales of SONET/SDH transceivers/transponders in volume terms, says the report. By 2014, the market for WDM modules will have reached more than $770 million in revenues as carriers make the shift to a WDM-based transport infrastructure in order to support new high-bandwidth services and their promised 100-Gbps backbones. The sophisticated encapsulation and OA&M procedures provided by the ITU's OTN architecture will, in part, make this possible, according to the firm.
ROADM deployment is also creating larger addressable markets for WDM modules. After years of merely being talked about, the WDM boxes are now being deployed much more widely and allowing operators to capitalize on their ability to provide greater flexibility of network design, integration of SDH and OTN, fast service activation, and high bandwidth efficiency, finds the study.
SONET/SDH sales are expected to decline in aggregate, but there will still be opportunities for transceivers/transponders in the OC-192 space, which is expected to reach around $240 million by 2014. Since many of these opportunities will be found in the cost-sensitive access space, CIR believes that the key to success in OC-192 will be the use of smaller multisource agreements (MSAs) and lower power consumption.