5 February 2003 Mountain View, CA -- The recovery in the telecom sector and growing use of 10-Gigabit optical links for enterprise and storage applications will drive steady growth in the long-wavelength laser and transceiver market, contends a new report from Strategies Unlimited. This year will be critical for the suppliers, however, with well over 40 companies clamoring for orders spread among a dizzying number of new and existing segments--and surprisingly little consolidation in the hodge-podge of companies so far.
Other findings in the report include the following:
• Lead times are extending for the first time in several years after the market fell by 80% from its peak to nearly $500 million in 2003. It will recover in 2004 and grow at a compound annual rate of 24% by 2008. The recovery will be boosted by the growing use of optical links in LANs and SANs that will spill over to create new demand for long wavelength transceivers in campus and, to a lesser extent, metro networks.
• Promising opportunities include emerging form factors and new approaches to carry 10-Gigabit traffic over legacy multimode fiber. These latter developments will drive the use of long wavelength transceivers where short wavelength transceivers have been traditionally used.
• Two suppliers associated with enterprise network products, Agilent and Finisar, led sales in 2003. Such datacom transceiver suppliers are pushing toward higher-end products, while some traditionally high-end telecom suppliers are seeking to capture sales to enterprise equipment makers.
• In all, dozens of companies are competing over a changing array of segments. Because every supplier has cut back severely, no company can feel secure about its own ability to recover or, in the case of start-ups, just to make it to first base.
"The saying that 'past performance is no indication of future behavior' is especially apt in this market," reports Tom Hausken, director of communication component research at Strategies Unlimited. "It is impossible to predict who will eventually emerge as the new market leaders, but a change in the lineup is certain, and we are seeing some of that already."
The report, "Long-Wavelength High-Data-Rate Lasers--2004," reviews the applications, markets, technology, and suppliers of these laser and transceiver products and presents forecasts by application and type, including unit sales and price projections, along with estimates of revenues and market shares of key suppliers. For more information, visit www.strategies-u.com.