Traditional pay TV to shed 14 million more subs by 2022

The increasing popularity of virtual multichannel video services along with the staying power of traditional, big-subscription TV packages are still expected to account for more than 70% of households through 2022, according to the latest forecast from Kagan, a media research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence. However, cord cutting is projected to reduce the overall number of households with a subscription to live linear channels in the near-term outlook.

Consumer appetites for traditional multichannel TV packages are waning, driving expectations for a contraction in the number of households in the United States with a classic cable, telco or satellite video offering. While skinny bundles from so-called virtual multichannel platforms are tapping into the demand to downsize the traditional "cable" bill, growth in self-aggregating, online-only households, as well as homes that rely on antennas for over-the-air (OTA) reception, are expected to pressure take rates.

Kagan's forecast through 2022 indicates:

• Traditional residential multichannel households, excluding commercial and dual-subscription households, are projected to decrease by 14.3 million to 75.4 million.
• Virtual multichannel households are projected to increase by 10.6 million to 15.3 million.
• Combined traditional and virtual multichannel households are projected to decrease by 3.7 million to 90.4 million.
• Online video only households are projected to increase by 6 million to 18.2 million.
• Over-the-air households, excluding antenna-equipped multichannel subs, are projected to increase 3.1 million to 19.1 million.