According to Digital TV Research, the number of pay TV subscribers in sub-Saharan Africa will increase by 74% between 2017 and 2023 to reach 40.89 million. However, the forecast estimates that subscriber growth will outstrip revenue progress. Pay TV revenues are expected to climb by 41% to $6.64 billion by 2023, up by $2 billion on 2017.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: "Pay TV competition in sub-Saharan Africa is becoming more and more intense, especially given the launch of Kwese TV in 14 countries during 2017. Pay TV operators in most countries have lowered subscription fees and/or subsidized/given away equipment as competition intensifies. By no means are all of the existing pay TV platforms are expected to survive in the long run. Having said that, several pay TV operators are booming."
Kenya is expected to continue to show considerable digital TV growth, but it is overcrowded. Kenya now boasts two pay DTT platforms, a cable network and five main satellite TV operators - too many for a country with only 4.01 million TV households.
From the 23.49 million pay TV subscribers at end-2017, 13.78 million were satellite TV and 9.11 million DTT. By 2023, satellite TV is expected to contribute 20.89 million and DTT 17.53 million. This means an extra 7 million pay satellite TV subscribers and 8 million pay DTT homes.
Nigeria is expected to have the most pay TV subscribers by 2023, having overtaken South Africa in 2021. The top eight countries are expected to supply three-quarters of the total in 2023.