According to Digital TV Research, global OTT TV and video revenues will reach $64.78 billion in 2021, up from $4.47 billion in 2010 and $29.41 billion in 2015.
From the $35.37 billion extra revenues between 2015 and 2021, Asia Pacific is expected to contribute $12.65 billion, western Europe $8.25 billion and North America $9 billion. The research house estimates that Latin American revenues will nearly triple, with even greater growth expected in eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa.
The United States is expected to remain the dominant territory for online TV and video revenues - which are expected to rise by $8.24 billion to $22.82 billion between 2015 and 2021. China is expected to add a further $6.24 billion, with its total revenues nearly quintupling over the period to move it into second place.
Subscription VOD (SVOD, as typified by Netflix) is expected to become the largest revenue source by 2018, but ad-supported OTT video is expected to regain the top position by 2020. SVOD is expected to add $14.58 billion in revenues between 2015 and 2021, with ad-supported OTT up by $15.37 billion.
Online TV and video advertising has been boosted in recent years by the rapid growth in mobile advertising. Fast growth is expected to continue, reaching a global total of $26.96 billion in 2021.
SVOD revenues are expected to increase from $890 million in 2010 to $11.13 billion in 2015 and to $25.71 billion in 2021. This means that SVOD would account for 40% of total OTT revenues in 2021, double the 20% recorded in 2010.
The research house forecasts 383 million SVOD subscriptions by 2021, up from 21 million in 2010 and 163 million at end-2015.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: "It is important to note that these figures are for gross subscriptions. A home or a person can pay for more than one SVOD platform. This is reasonably commonplace in some countries such as the U.S., Scandinavia and the UK."