According to Digital TV Research, global pay TV revenues (subscription fees and pay-per-view movies and TV episodes) will only grow by $99 million between 2015 and 2021 to $205.92 billion and peak in 2018. This follows 19.5% growth between 2010 and 2015, the research house says.
North American pay TV revenues are expected to fall by $13.5 billion between 2015 and 2021. Cord-cutting is responsible for some of the loss, but greater competition and conversion to bundles (with the lower revenues for TV than standalone offers) are more pressing factors. Western Europe is expected to be flat at $31 billion.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: "Most of the rest of the world will not follow the North American experience. True, pay TV revenues will fall in 27 countries between 2015 and 2021, but not to the same extent as in Canada and the U.S. Most countries are nowhere near the market maturity achieved in North America."
Excluding North America, pay TV revenues are expected to climb by $13.6 billion (up by 14%) between 2015 and 2021 to $107.82 billion, having recorded $20 billion growth (up by 28%) between 2010 and 2015. North America's share of the global total is expected to fall from 57.4% in 2010 to 54.2% in 2015 and 47.6% in 2021.
Asia Pacific revenues are expected to grow by $8 billion (up by 25%) between 2015 and 2021 to $40 billion. Asia Pacific revenues overtook those of Western Europe in 2014 and are expected to be larger than those of the whole of Europe by 2019.
Revenues are expected to increase by 63% (up by $2.5 billion) in the Sub-Saharan Africa region and by 26% (up by $1.0 billion) in Middle East & North Africa between 2015 and 2021. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pass MENA in 2016.
Pay TV revenues in Eastern Europe are expected to be 40% higher in 2021 ($5.97 billion) than in 2010 ($4.27 billion). However, the revenue increase is expected to be only be 9.9% between 2015 and 2021. Latin America is expected to add a further $1.6 billion (up by only 9.1%) between 2015 and 2021.
Revenues are expected to decline for 27 countries between 2015 and 2021. However, revenues are expected to more than double for a further 19 countries during the period. Most of the fast-growth nations by percentage increase are expected to be in Africa, with Myanmar, Laos, Oman and Bangladesh providing exceptions. India's revenues are expected to climb by $3.5 billion between 2015 and 2021 to $7.8 million, with China up by $1.9 billion to $11.7 billion.