Ethernet adoption on the rise

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KMI Research (Providence) completed an e-mail-based survey of telecommunications operators in July and collected data about the adoption of Ethernet line cards in new equipment purchases. The carriers' responses to the survey reveal an outlook of strong growth for the technology.

While just 14% of the 93 carriers that responded say more than 40% of their line-card purchases last year were for Ethernet line cards, as many as 36% of the respondents expect to have Ethernet represent more than 40% of their line-card purchases by 2005.

From 2002 to '05, only the least aggressive Ethernet deployment category—the 0–20% of total line-card category—will shrink (see Figure). All other categories will increase.Th 136970

When sorted by region, the survey responses indicate that carriers in Latin America and Asia-Pacific expect to have the fastest growth in Ethernet line cards as a percentage of total line-card deployments. In the three most aggressive categories representing more than 40% of total line-card deployments, no Latin American respondents had that level of deployment by last year, but 57% expect that level of deployment by 2005.

Only 6% of Asia-Pacific respondents indicate that 40% or more of their line-card deployments last year were for Ethernet, but 43% expect to deploy more than 40% of their line cards as Ethernet in 2005. The percentage of North American respondents indicating Ethernet penetration at more than 40% of line-card purchases will grow from 13% last year to 24% in 2005. In Europe, the percentage of respondents in this category will actually shrink from 40% in 2002 to 35% in 2005.

"The faster growth in Ethernet penetration in Latin America and Asia-Pacific probably reflects slower initial adoption of Ethernet," explains KMI analyst Michael Arden.

For details on the KMI survey, visit the firm's Website, www.kmiresearch.com.

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