Hybrid fiber/coaxial-cable networks take over cable TV
In three years, 63% of cable-TV plant miles will be configured within hybrid fiber/coaxial-cable (hfc) networks, according to a report by Allied Business Intelligence Inc. (abi), Oyster Bay, NY.
The abi annual report, catv Infrastructure Changes: Advances and Implications for catv Equipment Markets, 1997-2001, looks at how competition from direct broadcast satellite, multipoint multidirectional distribution systems, and digital broadcasting will move cable-TV operators to upgrade their plant equipment to hfc cable. The report examines the market according to individual components and examines market trends for headend equipment, RF electronics, optical electronics, and coaxial and fiber cable.
The fiber-optic cable market will experience high volume in upcoming years because of a rise in the cable-TV plant miles upgraded to an hfc architecture and an increase in the average strand count in the fiber-optic cable used by the cable-TV industry, according to the report. Between 1997 and 2001, the report predicts, fiber-optic manufacturers` sales will increase from $195 million to $245 million.
The report forecasts that the trunk and feeder coaxial market will rise moderately between 1996 and 2001, due mostly to cable-TV system upgrades involving partial plant replacements. Between 1997 and 2001, the value of this market is expected to rise from $310 million to $324 million.
The drop coaxial market is expected to experience moderate growth due to cable-TV subscriber growth and system maintenance. The report forecasts that the introduction of two-way services in some cable-TV plants might boost sales over time, but the sales increase will not have a significant impact between 1997 and 2001. The report notes that cable operators are showing resistance to replacing their coaxial cabling due to the associated fieldwork and costs.
The report predicts the headend equipment market will experience slight increases, and the optical electronics market will benefit from the upgrading of networks to hfc architecture. The report forecasts that sales of signal reception equipment will be essentially flat, and sales of signal processing equipment will grow from a current value of $135 million to $159 million by 2001, mostly generated by sales of modulators.
The report recommends that cable operators upgrade their networks to hfc as soon as their financial resources allow. As for equipment manufacturers, it recommends that cable suppliers provide high-count, easily spliced cables that can make subsequent fiber expansions easier for cable operators. The report also warns that although the coaxial market appears "fairly solid," trunk and feeder coaxial-cable producers should "regularly assess the penetration of fiber-optic cable and those technological advancements and cost reductions that could sharply and suddenly increase fiber penetration" in cable plants.
The report also recommends that linear optical electronics manufacturers work with cable operators to design products that fit industry needs, such as low-power lasers and optical nodes serving a smaller number of homes. According to the report, RF electronics manufacturers will be required to offer high-bandwidth, versatile products, such as amplifiers that can be upgraded to an optical node, along with 90V-capable active and passive components.
While the report finds no threat inherent to the RF electronics market in the short to medium term, it recommends that manufacturers of active and passive components diversify their product lines.
For more information, contact abi at tel: (516) 624-3113; fax: (516) 624-3115; or e-mail: www.alliedworld.com. The report is available on cd-rom for an additional charge, and its individual sections can be bought on abi`s Web site.u