Rapid masspar component growth expected through 2006

Feb. 1, 1998

Rapid masspar component growth expected through 2006

The global consumption of massively parallel (masspar) optical interconnect components is expected to grow from $21.6 million in 1996 to $529 million in 2001, according to a new study from ElectroniCast Corp., San Mateo, CA. The study, Massively Parallel Optical Interconnect Components Global Market Forecast, predicts consumption will continue to grow 42% annually, reaching $3.02 billion by 2006.

The study defines masspar optical interconnect components as links based on four or more optical transmitters, receivers, or transmitter/receivers packaged for a single footprint. All the values and prices in the estimates are in current dollars and include the effect of a 5% annual inflation rate over the forecast period. A rapid decline of average component prices is expected to partially offset the rise in the number of components sold.

According to Jeff Montgomery, ElectroniCast chairman and study director, the growth in masspar consumption will be driven by the continuing trend to higher data rate input and output per equipment unit and the growing complexity of networks. Other growth factors include demand for higher processing throughput, lower cost per channel, and reduced size.

Masspar optical interconnect links transport both synchronous and nonsynchronous signals, and the study finds there is a substantial market for nonsynchronous masspar links. Global consumption of nonsynchronous masspar links in 1996 is estimated at $20 million. The study predicts that consumption will more than double each year through 2001.

Synchronous masspar systems are still developmental, according to the report. These systems face strong competition from expanding copper transport capability plus multigigabit Fibre Channel links. The report predicts that by 2001, synchronous links will represent only 30% of total global masspar component consumption ($160 million), but will seize a 40% share, or $1.23 billion, by 2006.

The report finds that North America led the globe in the consumption of masspar components, with an 82% value share, or $17.7 million. North American consumption has grown rapidly over the past three years, while other world regions concentrate on research, development, and field trials, according to the report.

Over the next 10 years, European and Japanese/Asia-Pacific equipment designers are predicted to phase masspar components into use. As that happens, North American consumption share is expected to drop to 78% by 2001, then slip to 71%, or $2.14 billion, by 2006.

The report forecasts masspar components in four functional categories: transmitters, receivers, connectors, and multi-guide links (both cable and substrate waveguide). Although transmitters and receivers are often packaged in single modules for bidirectional (duplex) links, they are analyzed separately because their average prices follow different trends.

The report is available for $12,000. For more information, contact Theresa Hosking at tel: (650) 343-1398; fax: (650) 343-1698; or e-mail: electronicast@ msn.com.u

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