10 Gigabit datacom transceiver market will reach $9 billion by 2010, 10 Gigabit Ethernet not far off

According to a new market study from ElectroniCast, consumption (use) for 10 Gbps datacom transceiver modules will increase from a modest start in 2001 with $157 million to over $9 billion in 2010. The report includes a detailed database showing the global consumption (quantity, price per module, and value) forecasts of 10 Gbps datacom transceivers over the five applications. The OC-192 VSR (very short reach) and the proprietary 10 Gbps interconnect markets are considered crossover markets for 10 Gbps datacom transceivers.

The early deployments of 10 Gbps datacom transceivers in 2001 will total less than 100 thousand units but this will increase with a serious rollout of 10 Gbps datacom links with volumes of nearly 2 million units in 2003. Explosive growth will then continue over the next several years, reaching nearly 7 million units in 2005.

There will be a strong influence of 10-gigabit Ethernet in the total consumption, followed by 10-gigabit fiber channel in the latter half of the forecast. "The use of low-cost 10 Gbps datacom transceivers [specifically 4-fiber parallel] in the OC-192 VSR application shows an impact early in the forecast and continues as a strong crossover market throughout the forecast period," ElectroniCast President Stephen Montgomery said. "The portion of INFINIBAND that requires 10 Gbps transceivers [also 4-fiber parallel] begins to make an impact in 2005, becoming very significant from 2006-2010."

The strong ramps in volume for the 10 gigabit Ethernet and the OC-192 VSR applications lead the first year of serious deployment in 2002 with $1.14 billion, as shown in figure 1. Very strong value growth continues, even with declining module pricing, through the next several years, reaching $4.4 billion in global consumption by 2005 and $5.9 billion in 2006. Declining prices ease value growth beyond 2006, reaching just over $9 billion in 2010.

About ElectroniCast:

Founded in 1981, ElectroniCast provides forecasting for the fiber optic, optoelectronic, and photonic industries. For more information, visit www.electronicast.com.