SEPTEMBER 18, 2007 — LightCounting (Eugene, OR) released its September forecast report, predicting a 12% CAGR for optical tranceivers over the next few years. The market will exceed $2.8 billion in revenue by 2010, LightCounting finds.
Sales of optical tranceivers were tempered in the first half of 2007, according to the report, which still foresees a strong finish to the year. Sales of 4-Gbit/sec. fiber-channel modules and 10-Gbit/sec. DWDM transponders have been slower in 2007 than in 2006, when these products saw 375% and 120% growth, respectively. This sluggish growth is due to optical-networking vendor consolidations that occurred in 2006, says Vladimir Kozlov, Ph.D., LightCounting founder.
Fundamental elements in the optical networking industry remain strong, adds Roy Rubenstein, Ph.D., director of research, LightCounting. Adoption of high-speed 10- and 40-Gbit/sec. interfaces will drive market growth, the analysts predict. These technologies are infiltrating telecom and enterprise networks, as well as FTTx deployments.
Sales grew for these sectors in Q'02 2007, says Rubenstein, and deployment of these next-generation products fits with the industry roadmap. This likely will accelerate thanks to 40-Gbit/sec standards for next-generation Ethernet applications, approved by the IEEE.