It appears that the global transceiver market is set for a recovery.
After a 6% decline in 2023, a recent LightCounting report revealed that the global transceiver market is projected to expand at a 15% CAGR over the next five years.
LightCounting said the “market outlook for 2023-2024 was gloomy a year ago.” At that time, Nvidia reported growth in sales of AI hardware, including optical interconnects, while Google increased its plans for investments in AI Clusters.
While sales expectations for 400G and 800G Ethernet transceivers in 2023-2024 rose sharply, LightCounting noted that “the demand for many other products remains weak.”
The research firm noted that solid demand for Ethernet transceivers for applications in AI Clusters will be the primary growth factor. Upgrades to DWDM networks operated by Cloud companies will also significantly contribute to the total.
Sales of FTTx and Wireless Fronthaul optics declined the most in 2023. LightCounting said it does not expect a recovery in these segments until 2025. The DWDM market should see a modest recovery in 2024, while sales of Ethernet transceivers and AOCs are projected to ramp by 40% and 25%, respectively.
Despite significant growth in wireless fronthaul and FTTx product sales in 2025-2029, LightCounting said the impact of all other segments will be marginal.
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