Report: Service provider capex to bottom in 2010, investments to rise in 2011

NOVEMBER 20, 2009 -- Infonetics' latest report states that worldwide, service providers spent US$305 billion in 2008 on capital expenditure projects, such as network infrastructure upgrades.

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NOVEMBER 20, 200 -- Market research firm Infonetics Research has released the second edition of its "2009 Service Provider Capex, Opex, ARPU, and Subscribers" report, which features analysis on how current economic conditions are impacting telecom markets by region and equipment segment.

"Global telecom service provider capital expenditures hit a plateau in 2008, marking the end of a five-year investment cycle and the beginning of a three-year disinvestment cycle, albeit a less dramatic one than what followed the great telecom crash of 2000. Capex will bottom down in 2010 and a new investment cycle will start in 2011, driven by 3G roll-outs in India and Central and Latin America, the start of 3G roll-outs in Africa, and a ramp-up in LTE deployments in Australia, Brazil, Western Europe, Japan, and North America," predicts Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure at Infonetics Research.
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The report shows that worldwide, service providers spent US$305 billion in 2008 on capital expenditure projects, such as network infrastructure upgrades.

Global capex is forecast to decline at most 6% in 2009, mainly due to a significant capex shakeout in the Middle East and Africa, a weakening U.S. dollar, expected declines in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, and delays in U.S. broadband stimulus funding. Infonetics anticipates a year-end bump in capex, which could bring the overall capex decline in 2009 to less than 6%. Mainly due to currency effects, worldwide service provider revenue is forecast to decline only very slightly in 2009, to $1.67 trillion, driven by mobile communication services, as consumers continue to hold on to their mobile services during tough economic times. Mobile infrastructure will continue to dominate total global telecom and datacom spending, followed by voice equipment.

The analyst firm says optical network hardware is a bright spot in today's tightened capex environment, with decent single-digit percent spending growth expected in 2009, despite currency devaluations.

The world's 10 largest service providers (ranked in order by 2008 revenue) are AT&T, NTT, Verizon, Deutsche Telekom, France Télécom, Vodafone, China Mobile, Telefónica, BT, and Sprint.

Infonetics' capex report tracks revenue, capex, capex-to-revenue ratios, opex, ARPU, subscribers, and access lines of 171 public and semiprivate/government-owned service providers on a monthly and biannual basis. The report includes past, current, and forecast capex and revenue data through 2013 and equipment forecasts through 2009, market drivers, analysis, service provider demographics, and customizable pivot tables to analyze data by service provider, service provider type, and equipment category.

The report includes a "Fundamental Telecom/Datacom Market Drivers" report with analysis of overall market conditions for service providers, enterprises, subscribers, and the global economy.


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