Consumption of 10-Gbit/sec data-communications transceiver modules will increase from $157 million in 2001 to over $9 billion in 2010, according to a new market study by ElectroniCast Corp. (San Mateo, CA). The report shows the global consumption (quantity, price per module, and value) forecasts of 10-Gbit/sec datacom transceivers over five applications: OC-192 very-short-reach (VSR), proprietary 10-Gbit/sec interconnects, InfiniBand, Fibre Channel storage-area networks (SANs), and 10-Gigabit Ethernet. The OC-192 VSR and proprietary interconnect markets are considered cross over markets for 10-Gbit/sec datacom transceivers.
The early deployments of 10-Gbit/sec datacom transceivers in 2001 will total less than 100,000 units, but that will increase with a serious rollout of 10-Gbit/sec datacom links with volumes of nearly two million units in 2003. Growth will then continue over the next several years, reaching nearly seven million units in 2005.There will be a strong influence of 10-Gigabit Ethernet in the total consumption, followed by 10-Gigabit Fibre Channel in the latter half of the forecast. "The use of low-cost 10-Gbit/sec datacom transceivers, specifically four-fiber parallel, in the OC-192 VSR application shows an impact early in the forecast and continues as a strong crossover market throughout the forecast period," says ElectroniCast president Stephen Montgomery. "The portion of InfiniBand that requires 10-Gbit/sec transceivers-also four-fiber parallel-begins to make an impact in 2005, becoming very significant from 2006 to 2010."
The strong ramps in volume for 10-Gigabit Ethernet and OC-192 VSR applications lead the first year of serious deployment in 2002 with $1.14 billion. Very strong value growth continues, even with declining module pricing, through the next several years, reaching $4.4 billion in global consumption by 2005 and $5.9 billion in 2006. Declining prices ease value growth beyond 2006, reaching just over $9 billion in 2010.
For more information or to purchase a copy of the report, "10-Gbit/sec Datacom Transceiver Market Forecast," contact ElectroniCast at 650-343-1398 or visit the company's Website at www.electronicast.com.