According to SNL Kagan's report, "The set-top box market remains robust," worldwide set-top shipments are on track to reach 273 million in 2016, up slightly from 269 million in 2015. In addition to the growth of satellite units, cable shipments are also expected to increase modestly in 2016, while demand for digital terrestrial TV (DTT) and IP set-tops remains relatively flat.
Although unit volumes are expected to increase in 2016, set-top revenues are again trending lower. High-volume set-tops are continuing to experience declining ASPs, primarily due to production efficiencies and decreasing component prices. At year-end 2016, the research house is projecting global set-top revenues to be $16.4 billion, an annual decrease of 6%.
Demand for set-tops is projected to rise slightly over the next year, with unit shipments reaching 275 million in 2017. Beginning in 2018, unit shipments are forecast to begin slipping due to slowing growth in pay TV households and the increasing use of alternative devices including smart TVs and streaming media devices.
While SNL Kagan is projecting total set-top unit shipments to decrease further in 2018 and 2019, the company also acknowledges that demand for set-top products will remain robust for the next several years. In fact, global shipments are still forecast to exceed 261 million in 2020.
Meanwhile on the set-top vendor market share front, market shares of the leading set-top manufacturers experienced significant changes in 2015. According to company reports and SNL Kagan estimates, Huawei is now the world's largest set-top manufacturer, replacing Technicolor, which finished in the top spot the year before.
Huawei shipped an estimated 26 million units last year, outpacing Skyworth by a million units. Technicolor finished third in total market share after seeing demand for its satellite boxes decline slightly during 2015. ARRIS finished fourth after experiencing a 13% drop in estimated annual shipments, a decline that was mostly due to softening demand in North America for lower-end cable boxes. Pace, Changhong and Yinhe rounded out the top seven manufacturers.