Peak Pay TV? Big Hit Expected

March 23, 2015
According to Digital TV Research, pay TV revenues (subscriptions and on-demand []) in North America peaked in 2013 at $102.86 billion ...
According to Digital TV Research, pay TV revenues (subscriptions and on-demand) in North America peaked in 2013 at $102.86 billion. The research house forecasts that revenues will fall by 11.7% or $12.04 billion between 2014 and 2020 to $90.71 billion in 2020.

Cable revenues in Canada and the United States are expected to decline by $12.98 billion - $3.66 billion less from analog cable and $9.32 billion lower for digital cable. Satellite TV is expected to lose a further $1.23 billion, but IPTV is expected to climb by $2.17 billion.

There were 67.8 million cable TV subs in 2010, of which 17.5 million were analog, but the total is expected to fall to 56.6 million by 2020.

Satellite TV is expected to overtake cable to become the largest pay TV platform earner in 2019. However, satellite TV revenues are expected to fall by $1.2 billion between 2014 and 2020 to $40.69 billion.

Despite a recent slowdown in subscriber growth, the number of homes paying for IPTV is expected to climb by 23% between 2014 and 2020 to reach 18.05 million, to 13.5% of TV households.

The number of traditional pay TV subs is expected to remain flat at 110 million. However, pay TV penetration is expected to drop from 86.7% in 2010 to 82.6% by 2020 as the number of TV households climbs. The number of homes not paying for TV services is expected to increase from 18.9 million in 2010 to 26.3 million in 2020.

OTT revenues are expected to reach $10.39 billion in 2020, up from $6.85 billion in 2014 and $2.02 billion in 2010. The figure do not include advertising revenues for the OTT players.

The number of SVOD subscribers is expected to reach 66.85 million in 2020, up from 50.62 million in 2014 and 16.68 million in 2010. SVOD revenues are expected to reach $6.91 billion in 2020, up by $2 billion on 2014.

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