Cisco’s (Nasdaq:CSCO) newly released Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast calls for a quadrupling of global Internet traffic between 2010 and 2015. Internet traffic will reach 966 exabytes per year by 2015, in Cisco’s view, driven in part by a 50% increase in users of online video.
The latest VNI forecast cites four factors, including the video user increase, for the significant escalation in Internet traffic:
- The number of connected devices will skyrocket. In fact, at nearly 15 billion, the number of devices connected via the Internet in 2015 will be twice that of the Earth’s population.
- Which is not to say people will use the Internet less. Cisco foresees the number of Internet users will grow to nearly 3 billion by 2015. This figure represents more than 40 percent of the world's projected population.
- Broadband data rates will increase. Cisco expects fixed broadband rates, such as those available via FTTH, to increase 4X, from 7 Mbps in 2010 to 28 Mbps in 2015.
- As the number of online video users increases from 1 billion in 2010 to approximately 1.5 billion by 2015, 1 million video minutes will cross the Internet every second, according to Cisco.
These factors will be most pronounced in the Asia Pacific region, which Cisco says will generate the most IP traffic by 2015 (24.1 exabytes per month), and in the Middle East and Africa, where Internet use is expected to grow the fastest (8X) during the study period.
Cisco says it uses in-depth analysis and modeling of traffic, usage, and device data from independent analyst forecasts to compile its VNI Forecast. The company validates this data with traffic data provided from global service providers and consumers.
Additional factoids from the Cisco VNI Forecast can be found in the Lightwave Blog.