Infonetics: SFP+, tunable XFPs to drive 10G/40G/100G transceiver market to $1.44B by 2014
MAY 6, 2010 -- Revenue for 10G, 40G, and 100G transceivers and transponders will reach $1.44 billion worldwide by 2014, says a new report from market research firm Infonetics Research. According to 10G/40G/100G Optical Transceivers Market Size and Forecasts, 10G SFP+ and tunable XFP technology, and by spikes in future 40G and 100G adoption, will drive the revenue increase.
"Our conversations with service providers and enterprises indicate they have a strong preference for 100G technology provided it is at the right price, less urgency surrounding 40G coherent technology, and wide-scale acceptance of both 10G SFP+ and tunable XFP,” says Andrew Schmitt, Infonetics Research's directing analyst for optical. “Based on our optical transport, router, switch, and enterprise equipment forecasts, combined with our service provider deployment models, we expect 100G pricing to reach twice that of 40G in 2013, resulting in a rapid shift to 100G. By 2014, 40G and 100G modules will make up roughly half of the world's total 10G/40G/100G optical transceiver and transponder revenue."
Highlights from the report include:
- Tunable XFPs are the major 10G growth opportunity, as they eliminate inventory management issues with fixed-wavelength modules, fulfill the need for tunability as ROADM-based networking rises in popularity, and replace the more costly 300-pin format
- Meanwhile, SFP+ is replacing XFP, driven by strong growth in 850-nm modules for 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) and 8/16G Fibre Channel applications
- Shipments of next-generation 40G long-range (LR) and short-range (SR) optical transceivers will begin in 2010, primarily for enterprise and IP router applications
- Revenue for 40G long-reach interfaces jumped 52% in 2009 over 2008, to $114.6 million, while revenue for 40G 300-pin short- and intermediate-reach interfaces dropped 35%, driven by price erosion and demand weakness
- During the 2011-2012 timeframe, shipments of DQPSK transceivers are expected to outstrip those of DPSK, as the cost differential between the two drops
- Worldwide revenue is forecast to grow nearly 10-fold from 2009 to 2014 for tunable DQPSK 40G optical transceivers
Infonetics' 10G/40G/100G Optical Transceivers report provides analysis, market size, and forecasts through 2014 for manufacturer revenue and units shipped for 10G, 40G, and 100G optical transceivers and transponders. Port forecasts in the report are based on Infonetics Research's 10G/40G/100G ports forecast, which aggregates trends from a wide range of enterprise, carrier routing and switching, and optical transport equipment.
Infonetics touts the report as the first to analyze the optical transceiver and transponder market by module, reach, wavelength, and form factor.. It is also the first to use end-market projections of carrier preferences and equipment shipments to drive component forecasts, the company asserts.
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