Cable outside plant equipment revenues to see 15% increase in 2024
New research from Dell’Oro Group says that total cable outside plant equipment revenues are expected to increase to $972 million in 2024, a 15% year-over-year increase. This increase, reports Dell’Oro, is driven by mid- and high-split DOCSIS 3.1 and Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) projects in the North American market.
Dell’Oro’s Cable Outside Plant Equipment Advanced Research Report further predicts that, through 2030, cable operators will spend $10 billion on outside plant equipment. This spending is expected to peak in 2027, with $2 billion spent that year due to several tier North American tier-one operators upgrading amplifiers and nodes for DOCSIS 4.0.
Jeff Heynen, vice president of Broadband Access and Home Networking market research at Dell’Oro Group, said, “The current focus on Remote PHY and band splitting will lead to longer-term DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades, particularly in the North American and select European markets, where operators are looking to increase capacity and keep pace with fiber ISPs. These upgrades will significantly increase spending on optical nodes, amplifiers, and passive equipment, including taps and hardline splitters, through 2028.”
Heynen told Lightwave that cable operators must continue investing in their networks to compete with fiber and FWA providers.
“It’s important to keep in mind that the upgrades they are planning to make to their outside plant are not only intended to improve speed and throughput but also to improve reliability through increased telemetry and improved signal quality throughout their DOCSIS networks,” he said. “Certainly, cable operators have many technology options to offer speeds that meet or exceed those offered by fiber providers without having to spend the money to overbuild with fiber. But, with the next generation of amplifiers and nodes, cable operators will also get more visibility into the performance of their networks and be able to anticipate issues more quickly. Reliability and uptime will also be critical decision points for consumers in selecting a broadband provider when speeds are roughly equal.”
He also said that the U.S. will likely see more fiber overbuilds among tier 2 and tier 3 cable operators but not necessarily tier 1 operators.
“Among the largest cable operators, the story is more mixed,” he said. “Certainly, Comcast, Charter, Cox, Mediacom, and Rogers/Shaw are all focused on upgrading their DOCSIS networks as their primary strategy. Every year, those operators survey the condition of their outside plant. There is always a small percentage of that plant that has aged or has been damaged to the point where a full rehab is necessary. In those cases, operators are overbuilding with fiber. As time goes on, the percentage of their networks that get overbuilt with fiber will gradually increase. Operators will be able to determine best practices for overbuilding such that, when the time comes for a strategy shift to all fiber, they will know how to do so extremely cost-effectively. But I don’t expect to see that among the major operators until 2030+.”
According to Heynen, these trends ultimately bode well for cable-centric vendors.
“This outside plant upgrade cycle through the end of this decade will provide a boost to vendors in the space,” he said. “However, it is important for cable-centric vendors to also have a fiber story so that the eventual increase in fiber overbuilding doesn’t leave them behind.”
The report covers DAA and Generic Access Platform (GAP) nodes, amplifiers (including 1.2 GHz, 1.2 GHz full duplex, and 1.8 GHz), and passives, including taps, hardline splitters, and power inserters.
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Hayden Beeson
Hayden Beeson is a writer and editor with over seven years of experience in a variety of industries. Prior to joining Lightwave and Broadband Technology Report, he was the associate editor of Architectural SSL and LEDs Magazine.