Data-oriented services are expected to capture 38% of the fixed-telecommunications market in Western Europe by 2005, which is double what it is this year, according to a new interactive Web service from Analysys Publications (Cambridge, UK) entitled "Fixed Telecoms Projections: Western Europe." Analysts expect to see a decline in total fixed-voice telephony revenues from EUR105.97 billion in 1998 to EUR100.74 billion in 2005. During this same period, revenues from fixed public data services and business value-added services are expected to experience a compound annual growth rate of 13.9% per year, to increase from EUR24.7 billion to EUR61.59 billion.
"The decline of fixed-voice services and the rise of data-oriented services, encouraged by broadband access, are changing the shape of fixed-telecommunications revenues," asserts analyst Tim Hills. "Traditional strengths in voice will be less relevant as hundreds of participants scramble to grab shares of the only significant fixed-telecommunications growth areas-data and related added-value services."
Growth in data-oriented services will be accompanied by increased penetration of broadband access as an available telecommunications service. Broadband subscriber connections to residential or small and medium-sized business users will reach 28 million by 2005, to capture 13% of the projected total market.
In 1998, the number of broadband subscriber connections was effectively zero. New entrants will capture the largest share of the growth, quadrupling their total revenues from EUR12 billion in 1998 to EUR58 billion at the end of the forecast period.
"The big changes in revenue structure, modest overall total revenue growth, and widespread use of broadband access will make fixed telecommunications in Western Europe a tougher marketplace for telecommunications operators than before," asserts Hills.
Analysts expect incumbent operators will maintain their dominant position, despite a steady loss of market share. Analysts also predict increased market consolidation since new entrants will find it difficult to survive alone.
The subscription-based Web service, "Fixed Telecoms Projections: Western Europe," provides marketing data for 16 countries, including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Fully interactive and regularly updated, the service allows users to browse and analyze data by service, service sector, or operator type and features information about subscriber connections, key economic indicators, and a market-trends survey that is updated twice a year.