LightCounting says that those prone towards a friendly wager or two should place their money on the market for 50G PON optics over 25G PON optics. The market research firm states in a new research note that history shows that “interim” technology steps – which is apparently how LightCounting views 25G PON – have traditionally been left in the dust when higher-speed options reach the market.
The company acknowledges the existence of the 25GS-PON MSA, backed with available hardware from Nokia. Sales of this technology have begun (see, for example, “Proximus turns up 25G PON link, commits to deployments”). Meanwhile, Huawei has announced 50G PON technology, which has the support of the three major Chinese telecommunications companies.
However, for providers of FTTx optical transceivers and bidirectional optical subassemblies (BOSAs) trying to decide where to put their development dollars, LightCounting says similar situations will provide an indication of how the next-gen PON market will play out. The market research firm’s analysts point to the fortunes of 40 Gigabit Ethernet and 100 Gigabit Ethernet transceivers. An industry faction urged the IEEE to create a 40-Gbps standard as a stepping stone toward 100 Gigabit Ethernet. However, 100 Gigabit Ethernet sales rapidly exceeded those of 40 Gigabit Ethernet once such modules became available, as the LightCounting chart below illustrates:
- higher data rate products capture a larger market share and have a longer lifecycle
- support from the largest customers determine volumes and revenues (and here LightCounting apparently believes that the three Chinese service providers trump AT&T’s potential use of 25G PON)
- Those volumes will help offset inevitable price reductions.
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