November 17, 2005 Charlottesville, VA -- According to a report from CIR, a market research and consulting firm, the market for 10-Gbit/sec ports on telecommunications and data communications equipment will grow from $2.1 billion in 2006 to $4.8 billion by 2010.
According to the report, this will represent growth from 221,000 ports to 1.6 million ports shipped over the same period, as 10 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) follows earlier Ethernet technologies into its "mass market" phase.
Key trends in the 10G market, according to the report, include:
* Shifting MSAs: The firm's research indicates that, for module makers, XFP and X2 modules are currently the high growth opportunities; CIR believes that module firms should initially focus on X2 and XENPAK modules for short- and intermediate-reach 10-GbE ports. After 2007, the firm projects that XFP and X2 will come to dominate module sales. The report notes that JDSU and Finisar have benefited from being among the first firms to adopt the latest MSAs.
* Competing on technology: Even though the 10G market is rapidly becoming commoditized and is seeing a massive transfer of production facilities to Asia, the firm believes that established companies will be able to conserve market share through innovations in materials and production technology. The report sees particular hope in robotic manufacturing processes and new materials platforms - especially silicon photonics.
* Emergence of 40-Gbit/sec technology: CIR claims that by 2008, 40-Gbit/sec port shipments will begin to take off commercially. Although to date, 40-Gbit/sec modules have been used mostly in R&D and service provider trials, the firm believes that 40G ports will be increasingly found on very large core routers and ultimately on SONET/SDH ADMs after that date. By 2008, the firm expects that many of the "thorny issues" - involving dispersion, new materials, and fiber non-linearities - will have been resolved and the price for 40-Gbit/sec modules will have gone down considerably. The report notes that although there have been few 40G announcements in recent years, some of the largest module and component manufacturers, including Avanex, CyOptics, Fujitsu, JDSU, Opnext and Oki, have had 40G programs in the past, which could be revived.
The report, "The Market for 10-G and 40-G Modules and Components: 2006-2013," is the latest in a series of annual reports from CIR that tracks opportunities in the 10G market and beyond. The report covers the latest developments in 10G networking for routers, fixed and modular Ethernet switches, servers, ADMs and crossconnects, and WDM multiplexers. The report also analyzes the markets for optical modules (including MSA developments) and component technology.
The report includes detailed 8-year volume and value forecasts of the 10G market, broken out by type of equipment, MSA, and protocols used. The report also includes forecasts of the emerging 40G market, profiles and assessments of the strategies of leading vendors, and the latest opportunities in Asia.
The report is priced starting at $2,495. Electronic versions of the report are available.