Cisco has released the latest version of its Visual Networking Index (VNI). And it should come as no surprise that the "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Complete Forecast for 2015 to 2020" predicts that global IP traffic will nearly triple, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22%, over the next five years. Global broadband speeds will nearly double, from 24.7 Mbps in 2015 to 47.7 Mbps by 2020.
The traffic growth will derive from a combination of the addition of 1 billion new internet users, as many as 10 billion new devices and connections (much of these machine-to-machine), and increasing consumption of video. In fact, internet video will account for 79% of global internet traffic by 2020, according to the new Cisco VNI, up from 63% in 2015.
Overall, global IP traffic will hit 194.4 exabytes per month by 2020, according to the VNI, up from 72.5 exabytes per month in 2015. That will make the global annual run rate 2.3 zettabytes by 2020, up from 870 exabytes in 2015.
Much of this traffic will come from Asia Pacific. That region will drive 67.8 exabytes/month by 2020 (a 22% CAGR) and will see three-fold growth. Other regional predictions include:
- North America: 59.1 exabytes/month by 2020, 19% CAGR, two-fold growth
- Western Europe: 28.0 exabytes/month 2020, 20% CAGR, two-fold growth
- Central Europe: 17.0 exabytes/month by 2020, 27% CAGR, three-fold growth
- Latin America: 11.6 exabytes/month by 2020, 21% CAGR, two-fold growth
- Middle East and Africa: 10.9 exabytes/month by 2020, 41% CAGR, six-fold growth.
Video service uptake will include video surveillance, traffic from which Cisco says nearly doubled in the past year and will grow 10-fold by 2020, and virtual reality. Traffic from virtual reality video quadrupled in the past year and will increase 61-fold by 2020, according to the new VNI.
Other hot services over the forecast period will include:
- Online gaming: As the fastest growing residential internet service, online gaming will see users grow from 1.1 billion in 2015 to 1.4 billion by 2020.
- Mobile location-based service (LBS): The fastest growing consumer mobile service will see user number increase from 807 million in 2015 to more than 2.3 billion by 2020.
- Desktop /personal videoconferencing: The fastest growing business internet service will see user number increase from 95 million in 2015 to 248 million by 2020.
Now in its 11th iteration, the Cisco VNI combines independent analyst forecasts, real-world network usage data, and Cisco's own predictions.
For related articles, visit the Business Topic Center.
For more information on high-speed transmission systems and suppliers, visit the Lightwave Buyer's Guide.