TIA/MMTA issues Market Review and Forecast for year 2000

The herald of the new year means the distribution of the MultiMedia Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast. Produced by the Telecommunications Industry Association and the MultiMedia Telecommunications Association, this year's report predicts that while long-haul fiber deployment will soon begin to slow down, extreme growth will occur in the markets for transport equipment and residential access.

The herald of the new year means the distribution of the highly regarded MultiMedia Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast. Produced jointly by the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) and its subsidiary, the MultiMedia Telecommunications Association (MMTA), both of Arlington, VA, this year's report predicts that while long-haul fiber deployment will soon begin to slow down, extreme growth will occur in the markets for transport equipment and residential access.

The 2000 MultiMedia Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast analyzes technology, trends, and market conditions for communications topics ranging from network services and convergent technologies to wireless communications and computer-telephone integration. Upon examination of market for optical cables and equipment, it notes that spending has almost tripled in the last decade, growing from $4.1 billion in 1990 to $14.6 billion in 1999.

The report predicts that spending on fiber cable "will peak in 2000 at $2.7 billion before receding somewhat to $2.2 billion in 2002 and 2003 as the new network deployments are completed." Although there will continue to be increased demand for bandwidth, less fiber will be installed to meet demand because networks will have extra capacity built in. The development of advanced transport equipment also will require less fiber to transmit increasing amounts of traffic. Spending on transport equipment is expected to rise annually by 23.1% over the next five years, from $12.2 billion in 1999 to $28 billion in 2003, says the report.

While the report predicts that installation in long-haul networks will decline after 2000, the amount of fiber installed in business and residential environments should increase. According to the Review and Forecast, "The biggest increase in the deployment of fiber will be in the residential access area, where fiber in the loop and fiber to the curb are expected to drive the demand. Fiber deployment for residential access is projected to increase from 515,000 km in 1999 to 3.5 million km in 2003, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of over 61%. In 2003, the residential access market is projected to comprise 14.9% of total fiber installations, up from only 2.7% in 1999."

The largest dollar-value equipment category for the overall market in 1999 was voice/data enterprise equipment, which totaled $75.8 billion, an 11.5% increase over 1998. Double-digit increases also were recorded for Ethernet switches, network-management equipment, routers, and operating systems. Asynchronous Transfer Mode, Integrated Services Digital Network, and frame relay equipment also posted double-digit gains.

The overall U.S. telecommunications market (equipment and services) grew by more than 11.4% in 1999, generating revenues of $517.6 billion. Spending on telecom equipment continued its double-digit growth by recording an 11.5% increase over 1998 to reach $135.4 billion. Growth for transport services posted an 8.5% increase to $252 billion, and support services experienced a 17.3% increase to $138 billion. The fastest-growing equipment categories of 1999 included computer-telephone-integration hardware and software (up 66.2% from 1998); groupware (up 31.8%); videoconferencing equipment (up 14.3%); and network equipment and facilities (up 12.7%).

For more information or to order a copy of the 2000 MultiMedia Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast, call (703) 907-7472 or visit www.mmta.org.

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