Point Topic: Four million UK homes within reach of fiber by 2013
18 DECEMBER 2008 -- There could be over four million British homes and businesses on high-speed fiber broadband within five years, claims new research from Point Topic (search for Point Topic). The broadband analyst firm believes optical fiber will be in use for about 20% of the 22 million broadband lines expected in the UK by late 2013.
The cable TV network is expected to stand up well against this challenge, holding onto 23% of the broadband market, because it is already going some way towards providing much higher speeds, say Point Topic analysts. But the proportion using basic DSL, the telephone line technology which is the mainstay of today's broadband, will have dropped from over 78% today to only 57%
Most of the fiber connections will actually involve fiber only as far as the local telephone concentrator, so-called fiber-to-the-cabinet (FTTC). The last few hundred yards will still be on high-speed types of DSL over copper telephone lines. This will provide the majority of users with downstream data at 20 Mbps or more. Combined with new technologies in the core network, users will be able to get much more reliable, high-bandwidth, high-quality services than they can enjoy today.
With the increasing political and business pressure to make a national commitment to fiber, the prospects for a major step towards high-speed next-generation access look much more realistic than they did even a few months ago, says the research firm.
"This is probably the first moment when it has been possible to make a plausible forecast for fiber in the UK, based on some real plans and activity," contends Tim Johnson, chief analyst at Point Topic. For example, BT has announced a plan--still provisional--to roll-out fiber to 10 million homes by 2012.
"It'll probably take a bit longer than that but there are a lot of other players coming into the market too," Johnson notes. "So we estimate there will be over 4.4 million fiber lines by the end of 2013."
As BT starts its fiber trials, and operators in Bournemouth, South Yorkshire, East London, and other locations are rolling out or trialing variations on fiber services, 2009 will see the UK take its first steps into commercial fiber. Point Topic's projections suggest that over 1 million homes will be within reach of fiber by the end of 2010, increasing to well over 11 million three years later.
"There's a lot of controversy about whether and why people are actually going to want such high speeds," Johnson admits. "I think they will, because they will be attracted by the offer of one single converged service, not lots of separate ones."
"People will be able to mix video telephony, TV, audio, online games, and virtual worlds, all high-quality and high-resolution, into the total experience they want at that moment," he adds. "In fact, it's what today's teenagers are trying to do right now, and in a few more years, the technology will catch up with them."
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