JANUARY 9, 2009 -- Due to a grim economic outlook and substantial currency fluctuations, the telecom services market will generate $1.4 trillion in 2009, posting only 1% year-on-year growth compared with the 10-11% annual growth rates that have characterized previous years, according to a new report from Pyramid Research (search for Pyramid Research).
The global telecom market is expected to recover in 2010, however, driven by a combination of factors such as the increased availability of multiplay bundles and versatile, competitively priced devices, with emerging markets providing much-needed dynamism to the industry.
This new report, entitled "Global Telecom Services Revenue Forecast 2008-2013: Emerging Market Opportunities," delivers a five-year forecast for global telecom revenue by service, revealing that voice services will be hardest hit in 2009 while non-voice mobile applications and broadband Internet access are expected to remain robust. A contraction in the overall voice market of 3% in 2009 is projected, compared with a 6% expansion in 2008, while the data market, both fixed and mobile, will reach $411 billion in 2009, up 12% from 2008 levels.
"Mobile data will be the primary engine of growth, seeing revenue increase by 15% to $223 billion," notes Leslie Arathoon, vice president of research at Pyramid Research and co-author of the report. "The number of broadband accounts, including 3G mobile accounts, will more than double, going from the current 965 million to more than 2 billion by 2013. This will create an important target market for digital content, applications, and advertising dollars."
This report also provides telecom service revenue growth by region, indicating that emerging markets will remain dynamic throughout the forecast period. "Global mobile penetration now lies at 60%, a figure we forecast will climb to 84% by 2013, led by growth in India and China. These two markets will together add 829 million mobile subscriptions from 2009 to 2013, 44% of the world's total net additions during that period," adds Arathoon. "We also project that regional telecom service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East will see about 7% year-on-year growth, while the mature markets of North America and Western Europe are negatively affected by the deteriorated economic environment."
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