April 7, 2005 San Jose, CA -- Worldwide optical line terminal (OLT) and optical network terminal (ONT) PON equipment revenue hit $525 million in 2004, and is projected to grow to $2.2 billion by 2008, with port shipments reaching over 8 million, according to a biannual market share and forecast report, "PON Equipment," from Infonetics Research, an international market research and consulting firm covering the data networking and telecommunications industries.
"Asia is the major action point for PON, accounting for 93% of worldwide PON subscribers, a number which topped 1.4 million in 2004, and which is expected to grow to almost 22 million worldwide in 2008 as the broadband boom continues," says Michael Howard, principal analyst of Infonetics Research. "North America accounts for just 6% of total PON subscribers now, but will grow to 23% by 2008. Asia took in 76% of worldwide PON revenue in 2004, followed by North America with 20%. We project that in 2008, Asia Pacific will make up 39% of worldwide PON revenue, North America 43%."
The battle between BPON and EPON continues, reveals the report, with BPON making up 84% of all PON subscribers in Asia in 2004. However, the report says that EPON is being rolled out so fast in market-leading Japan that it will overtake Japan's BPON subscriber base in 2005. According to the study, Japanese carriers NTT East and NTT West have over a million subscribers combined - more than two-thirds of the world's PON subscribers - and these providers are now almost exclusively switching to Gigabit Ethernet PON (GEPON, a form of EPON).
The report calls BPON "the PON technology gorilla" in North America, making up 81% of North American PON revenue in 2004, with its reign expected to continue through 2006, when its successor, GPON, is expected to become more available. The report notes that GPON is a flexible option for providers because it is designed to handle Ethernet, IP, and ATM traffic, and can stream video over IP or over a separate analog wavelength, while offering roughly twice the capacity of EPON.
The study says that EPON is firmly entrenched in much of Asia, but sees GPON gaining momentum in North America, Europe, and several Asian countries, especially in China, where analog video is called an issue. According to the report, by 2008, North America, with GPON dominating, will account for 43% of global PON revenue, while Asia, with EPON dominating, will account for 39% of global revenue.
The biannually updated report tracks BPON, EPON, and GPON equipment used in FTTH and FTTB applications, including both OLTs and ONTs, and includes market share for global and regional total PON, as well as global BPON and EPON. Forecasts and market share cover all global regions including North America, EMEA, Asia Pacific, and CALA. Companies tracked in the report include AFL, Alcatel, Alloptic, Calix, Carrier Access, Ciena, ECI, Entrisphere, FlexLight, Fujitsi, Hitachi, iamba, LGE, Mitsubishi, Motorola, Nayna, NEC, Optical Solutions, Siemens, Sumitomo, Tellabs, Telstrat, Terawave, UTStarcom, and Zhone.