By Steve Douglas / Spirent Communications
Telecommunications industry changes rarely happen on a fixed schedule. As we close out 2023, it never hurts to take stock of where we’ve been and turn our thoughts to what’s ahead. That’s right; it’s time for some predictions.
Based on conversations we’re having now, here are the top trends to expect in 2024.
Enterprise private networks will be the fastest-growing new business frontier.
Private networks were among last year's hottest PoC projects and proved the concept. Early adopters typically saw an ROI within six months. That’s how powerful it is when businesses can customize wireless connectivity for specific throughput, latency, and business requirements. Now, more organizations want those capabilities and are willing to pay for them. According to an STL Partners survey, enterprises will pay a premium for private network solutions, provided telecoms can assure business outcomes under service-level agreements (SLAs).
For these reasons, private networks will become a meaningful source of telecom revenues this year. Look for early wins in the industrial sector (especially for supply line monitoring and fault detection), government and military deployments, and networks supporting augmented reality/extended reality (AR/XR) applications. Operators will also increasingly bundle private network connectivity with edge computing as a combined offering.
5G Standalone (SA) deployments will accelerate.
5G SA network deployments saw sluggish growth in 2023. The pace will pick up this year because the market is fully aligned for it. On the supply side, there’s now a vibrant market for 5G SA solutions, including 17 network equipment vendors, more than 80 chipset and modem options, and more than 1,400 5G SA-compliant device types available. We also see a growing demand for next-gen services. New enterprise opportunities, industrial deployments, and an AR/XR market poised to blow up (see below) will push operators towards 5G SA. By 2025, more than 100 commercial deployments will come online.
AR/XR applications get real.
People have been talking about the potential of AR/XR for years. In 2024, that talk turns into deployments because, like with 5G SA, the market is now primed for them. Beyond the gaming market, we see growing demand from enterprises for applications like virtual training and remote maintenance. For a pipeline operator (or a utility, telecom, or military forward operating base), the ability to perform AR-assisted equipment repairs eliminates the need to dispatch expert technicians, potentially saving millions. Meanwhile, on the supply side, the world’s biggest consumer electronics companies are investing billions to roll out premium AR/XR headsets at scale. The central government and military initiatives will make AsiaPac the early XR leader, but other markets will follow soon after.
Service providers will tap into new tools for digital transformation.
Telecom providers often position themselves as enablers for their customers’ digital transformations. Many will look to reinvent their operations this year, starting with automation. Early efforts will focus on lab consolidation and network lifecycle processes, primarily driven by machine learning rather than full AI (at least for now). Many service providers will also migrate Operational Support Systems (OSS) and IT workloads to the public cloud to simplify operations and build up cloud skills. In the quest to improve network quality and resiliency, more advanced providers will also turn to network digital twins. Using highly accurate, real-time virtual network models, they can thoroughly evaluate planned changes before implementing them and gain new freedom to experiment and innovate.
Steve Douglas is the head of market strategy for Spirent Communications.
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