Dell'Oro: 40G will lead recovery after down 2009

JANUARY 29, 2009 -- According to a newly released "Optical 5-year Forecast Report" by Dell'Oro Group, total worldwide optical transport equipment revenue is forecasted to decline 9% in 2009 and resume growth in 2010, reaching $14.5 billion in 2013.

JANUARY 29, 2009 -- According to a newly released "Optical 5-year Forecast Report" by Dell'Oro Group (search for Dell'Oro), total worldwide optical transport equipment revenue is forecasted to decline 9% in 2009 and resume growth in 2010, reaching $14.5 billion in 2013. Shipments of 40-Gbps wavelengths are forecast to grow at least 50% in each of the next five years and contribute nearly one-third of the capacity shipped in DWDM long-haul systems by 2013.

"The economy of most major countries is in a recession, and the consensus belief is that this recession may last through 2009," said Jimmy Yu, director of optical transport research at Dell'Oro Group. "While the near-term outlook is for the total optical market to contract 9% due to factors such as the economic downturn, there continues to be an opportunity for technologies that will help service providers reduce their capital expense while still expanding their network capacity. We think that 40-gigabit is one of those technologies as the price per bit of a 40-Gbps wavelength starts to be lower than that of a 10-gigabit wavelength in a DWDM long-haul system."

The report also indicates that shipments of 100-bps wavelengths are expected in late 2011.

The Dell'Oro Group 5-Year Forecast Report is intended to offer a complete overview of the optical transport industry with tables covering manufacturers' revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, and tributary/line or wavelength shipments (by speed up to 100 Gbps). The report tracks DWDM long-haul terrestrial, WDM metro, SONET/SDH, and optical switch equipment.

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