Surprise! wdm equipment sales to soar by 2001
A new report by ryan-hankin-kent inc., South San Francisco, CA, predicts that the talk surrounding wavelength-division multiplexing (wdm) will quickly translate into multibillion-dollar sales in North America. The company`s latest report, Photonic Networks, forecasts that the North American wdm market will expand from a current level of $1.6 billion to $4.4 billion by 2001.
The report says that three factors will drive this explosive growth. The much-discussed expansion in demand for capacity represents the first and most obvious trend. Second, carriers will adopt the technology for the operational flexibility it provides to mix services. Finally, the integration of wdm into network infrastructure will form part of a general evolution by both long-distance and local exchange carriers toward all-optical networks. The adoption by the local exchange carriers represents a key underpinning to wdm sales growth, according to the report.
"wdm will offer carriers important new service features that will both entice customers and dramatically change the way they design their networks," explains John Ryan, company principal. "This will prompt local exchange carriers to join the long-distance carriers as major customers for wdm transmission equipment."
Ryan-hankin-kent analysts began their research by evaluating each carrier`s system architecture and rate of conversion to wdm systems. They assumed conversion to wdm would occur only when the carrier had an appropriate economic incentive. The result showed not only strong acceptance of wdm by the long-distance carriers, but enough economic and operational incentives to entice local exchange carriers to the technology as well.
For additional information about Photonic Networks, part of the company`s Systems for Telecommunications: Analysis and Research program, call (415) 737-9600, fax: (415) 737-9766, or visit the company`s Web site at www.rhk.com.u