CIR predicts first revenues for 40/100 GbE by 2010

FEBRUARY 23, 2009 -- CIR believes that the economic downturn will not delay early adopters of 40/100 GbE as companies such as Google and Amazon have a "desperate need" for 100G connections today, say analysts.

FEBRUARY 23, 2009 -- The market for 40/100-Gigabit Ethernet products will begin to take off in 2010, according to a new report from CIR (search for CIR). Revenues from 40/100-GbE transceivers will reach $ 482 million by 2013, say analysts.

CIR believes that the economic downturn will not delay early adopters of 40/100 GbE as companies such as Google and Amazon have a "desperate need" for 100G connections today. And although the current economic situation is having an impact on carrier network upgrades, scaling carrier networks to 100 Gbps will now only be accomplished using a 40/100-Gbps variant, says the research firm.

CIR also believes that a handful of firms have the opportunity to shape the future of 40/100 GbE. These include Cisco, Juniper, Sun Microsystems, Force10, and Nortel at the OEM level; JDSU, Finisar, Avago, Luxtera and Opnext at the transceiver level. At the component level, there is Xilinx, Altera, IBM, LSI, Gennum, AMCC, Vitesse and Broadcom.

The adoption of 40G Ethernet will occur first in high-end servers and High Performance Computing applications. Within the 40-GbE environment, the SR4 version of the 40/100-GbE standard will initially account for as much as 80% of the market. However, the SR4 version is expected to lose share to CR4 over time as 40-Gbps-over-copper becomes more viable. And CIR expects both CR4 and SR4 to quickly lose share once serial 40 GbE becomes a reality in 2014.

CIR believes that 100G Ethernet will be adopted in the core of the network, driven by growth in 10-GbE server connections and access points. As 100 GbE begins to generate revenues around 2012, CIR expects the LR4 variant to account for maybe half the market, with SR10 taking another 20% of the market. However, improvements in copper technology should drive the CR10 share of the 100-Gbps space to 25% or so by 2016.

The initial offerings for the 40G Ethernet CR and SR variants will rely on existing technology leveraged from InfiniBand, which should give vendors a faster time to market and reduced R&D costs. The ability to produce low-cost VCSEL arrays will be especially critical to success in the SR markets. The highest investment in new technology will come from the 100G LR and ER variants, which require new 25G technology for the electronics and the optical components. This will include lasers, modulator drivers, PIN diodes, TIAs, and SERDES technology.


For more information about the report, "40/100 GigE markets: 2009-2013," visit CIR

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