CIR: Growing market for 100 GigE and other next-generation networks
NOVEMBER 28, 2006 -- With the recent endorsement of 100-Gbit/sec Ethernet by an IEEE Study Group, new opportunities for modules and component firms are about to appear. To help clients better understand and capitalize on these opportunities, According to its new report, "Beyond 10 & 40 Gbits/sec; Next Generation Ethernet and Sonet/SDH," CIR (search for CIR) claims that development efforts geared towards moving beyond current line rates will affect the networking value chain much sooner than expected and in a number of different ways.
The report draws a number of conclusions. For example, while optical integration rose and fell with the boom and bust of optical networking, such activity now seems essential to creating the cost-effective, very high-speed transceivers required for networks operating at above 40 Gbits/sec. Firms such as Apogee and Infinera are already building integrated optical components for next-generation networks and Intel seems likely to move in that direction as well. CIR expects to see exotic new chips emerge that combine the functionality of lasers and amplifiers, receivers and mux/demux, and/or even laser arrays integrated with an optical routing device.
These development efforts will also drive down the costs of available technologies. Renewed interest in optical integration coupled with the new technology of silicon photonics will lead to even smaller and lower cost 10-Gbit/sec transceivers. Luxtera is already pioneering this approach. While there is currently considerable excitement in the industry about the XFP and SFP+ formats, these may not turn out to be the ultimate in 10-Gbit/sec modules, and these new technology directions could help 10GbE become dominant in the server space.
CIR believes that the 100GbE MSA process will be just as messy as the one for 10GbE. Early 100GbE MSAs may be derived from the XENPAK, IBPAK, or 300-pin MSAs for 10 GbE. However, module manufacturers will soon jockey for market share with ever smaller MSAs and MSAs that are favored by the big equipment manufacturers, especially Cisco.
While the networking world is now moving towards 100GbE, there is little currently underway to take SONET/SDH standards beyond 40 Gbits/sec. The future of public networking may now lie in the ITU's much touted OTN with SONET/SDH carried on a lambda. Or it may lie in some carrier-class version of next-generation Ethernet. Whatever the outcome, the adoption of a 100-Gbit/sec Ethernet standard means that SONET/SDH and Ethernet are going their separate ways.
As the standards for 100GbE begin to emerge, network managers will face new questions on how to build their network infrastructure for the future. Should enterprise networks shift to OM3 or make a rapid transition to singlemode fiber in the enterprise? Does it make sense to buy from vendors who are further down the path to 100GbE? Will proprietary high-speed networking products prove useful and economical in the medium-term future?
CIR's new report includes an analysis of the opportunities and addressable markets for TDM, Ethernet, and WDM networks operating at above 40 Gbits/sec. It covers both optical and electronic components including lasers, modulators, detectors, electronic and optical dispersion products, amplifiers, WDM components, MAC, PMD and PHY chips and many other areas. The report also discusses the firms that are already making waves in this space. More information can be found on the company's website.
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