Cisco: Annual IP Traffic to Exceed 3 ZB by 2021

According to Cisco's (NASDAQ:CSCO) annual Visual Networking Index, over the next five years (2016-2021), global annual IP traffic will exceed 3 zettabytes (ZB) by 2021, driven by increases in Internet users, connected devices, Internet speeds and online video. One zettabyte is 10²¹ bytes, or 1 trillion gigabytes.

Top-level indicators for the forecast period include the projected increase in Internet users (from 3.3 to 4.6 billion or 58% of the global population), greater adoption of personal devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections (from 17.1 billion to 27.1 billion), average broadband speed advances (from 27.5 Mbps to 53.0 Mbps), and more online video viewing (from 73% to 82% of total IP traffic). Over the forecast period, global IP traffic is expected to increase three-fold reaching an annual run rate of 3.3 ZB by 2021, up from an annual run rate of 1.2 ZB in 2016.

For the first time in the 12 years of the forecast, M2M connections that support Internet of Things (IoT) applications are calculated to be more than half of the total 27.1 billion devices and connections and will account for 5% of global IP traffic by 2021. IoT innovations in connected home, connected healthcare, smart cars/transportation and a host of other M2M services are driving this incremental growth - a 2.4-fold increase from 5.8 billion in 2016 to 13.7 billion by 2021. With the rise of connected applications such as health monitors, medicine dispensers, and first-responder connectivity, the health vertical is expected to be fastest-growing industry segment (30% CAGR). The connected car and connected cities applications are expected to have the second-fastest growth (29% CAGRs respectively).

Video is expected to continue to dominate IP traffic and overall Internet traffic growth - representing 80% of all Internet traffic by 2021, up from 67% in 2016. Globally, there are expected to be nearly 1.9 billion Internet video users (excluding mobile-only) by 2021, up from 1.4 billion in 2016. The world is expected to reach 3 trillion Internet video minutes per month by 2021, which is 5 million years of video per month, or about 1 million video minutes every second.

Emerging media such as live Internet video are expected to increase 15-fold and reach 13% of Internet video traffic by 2021 - meaning more streaming of TV apps and personal live streaming on social networks. While live streaming video is reshaping today's online entertainment patterns, virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) are also gaining traction. By 2021, VR/AR traffic is expected to increase 20-fold and represent 1% of global entertainment traffic.

"As global digital transformation continues to impact billions of consumers and businesses, the network and security will be essential to support the future of the Internet," said Yvette Kanouff, SVP and GM of Service Provider Business, Cisco. "Driving network innovation with service providers will be key for Cisco to support the needs of their customers who want reliable, secure, and high quality connected experiences."

Other predictions and milestones include:

1. Global IP is expected to grow three-fold from 2016 to 2021. Global IP traffic is expected to reach 278 exabytes (EB; 10¹⁸ bytes, or 1 billion gigabytes) per month by 2021, up from 96 EB per month in 2016. Global IP traffic is expected to reach an annual run rate of 3.3 ZB by 2021. Busy hour Internet traffic is increasing faster than average Internet traffic. Busy hour Internet traffic is expected to grow 4.6-fold (35% CAGR) from 2016 to 2021, reaching 4.3 Pbps by 2021, compared to average Internet traffic, which is expected to grow 3.2-fold (26% CAGR) over the same period to reach 717 Tbps by 2021.
2. WiFi and mobile-connected devices are expected to generate 73% of Internet traffic by 2021. 2021 Internet access percentages are expected to be WiFi at 53%, cellular at 20% and fixed wireline at 27%. 2016 Internet access percentages were WiFi at 52%, cellular at 10% and fixed wireline at 38%.
3. Globally, total public WFi hotspots (including homespots) are expected to grow six-fold from 2016 to 2021 from 94 million in 2016 to 541.6 million by 2021. Globally, total WiFi homespots are expected to grow from 85 million in 2016 to 526.2 million by 2021. Leading hotspot countries are China (170 million by 2021), the United States (86 million by 2021), Japan (33 million by 2021) and France (30 million by 2021).
4. By 2021, 56% of connected flat panel TV sets are expected to be 4K, up from 15% in 2016. Installed/in-service 4K TV sets are expected to increase from 85 million in 2016 to 663 million by 2021.
5. Cord-cutting household traffic is 86% higher than average Internet households. A global cord-cutting household generates 117 GB per month in 2017, compared to 63 GB per month for an average Internet household.
6. End-user Internet traffic is moving closer to the edge - more than one-third of traffic is expected to bypass core by 2021. Globally, 35% of Internet traffic is expected to be carried metro-to-metro by 2021, up from 22% in 2016. Globally, 23% of Internet traffic is expected to be carried on regional backbones (without touching cross-country backbones) by 2021, compared to 20% in 2016. Globally, 41% of Internet traffic is expected to traverse cross-country backbones by 2021, compared to 58% in 2016.
7. Global enterprise SD-WAN traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 44% compared to 5% for traditional WAN. SD-WAN is expected to increase six-fold over the forecast period and represent 25% of WAN traffic by 2021.
8. Average DDoS (distributed denial of service) attacks are increasing steadily in size and approaching 1.2 Gpbs - enough to take most organizations completely offline. The peak attack size increased 60% year over year and represents up to 18% of a country's total Internet traffic while they are occurring. The average DDoS attack size increased to 22%, which is relatively the same rate as Internet traffic at 29% year over year. The number of DDoS attacks grew 172% in 2016 and is expected to increase 2.5-fold to 3.1 million by 2021 globally.

Regional IP traffic growth forecast (2016-2021):

• Asia-Pacific: 107.7 EB/month by 2021, 26% CAGR, 3.2-fold growth
• North America: 85 EB/month by 2021, 20% CAGR, 2.5-fold growth
• Western Europe: 37.4 EB/month 2021, 22% CAGR, 2.7-fold growth
• Central Europe: 17.1 EB/month by 2021, 22% CAGR, 2.75-fold growth
• Latin America: 12.9 EB/month by 2021, 21% CAGR, 2.6-fold growth
• Middle East and Africa: 15.5 EB/month by 2021, 42% CAGR, 5.8-fold growth