According to the Diffusion Group, rosy forecasts for consumer use of 4K/UltraHD video are overly optimistic. The research house says 4K will ultimately reach the mainstream, but that it will be a niche market for at least another five years, with widespread viewing of 4K content arriving in 2019 and growing quickly beyond.
Short-term viewership of 4K video is expected to be driven by consumer purchases of smart TVs with 4K functionality. However, the diffusion of 4K TVs is expected to occur more slowly than many believe due to poor consumer awareness, high prices, and lack of 4K content. However, the emergence of 4K-enabled devices is expected to help to fill the gap. For example, Amazon, Apple, and Roku are expected to use 4K-capable Internet set-top boxes for streaming from OTT services as a market differentiator.
While OTT streaming video is expected to be the main short-term driver of 4K video, pay TV operators are expected to slowly add live 4K support as the ecosystem matures, beginning with on-demand 4K offerings.