March 27, 2003--Although the global Internet infrastructure market took a hard hit in 2002, Probe Research reports that signs of recovery--albeit a slow one--are on the horizon. In a recent report, Probe forecasts that the market is expected to grow 92% between 2002 and 2006.
The worst of the decline is over, contends Probe analyst Richard Endersby. "While capex is expected to be down in 2002, stability over the next couple of years is more likely than further reductions," he says. "Although the capex/revenue ratio will fall throughout the next decade, we do expect to see some recovery by the end of our forecast period."
Clearly, 2002 was a difficult year for the industry with a number of exits and a weakening in the position of several vendors. The financial scandals surrounding WorldCom, Enron, Tyco, Adelphia and others did little to aid the situation. And, according to Endersby, rollouts of services--particularly those aimed at supporting 2.5 and 3G networks--have been slow and have disappointed.
Nevertheless, promising signs have included the "coming of age" of Ethernet in the public network. And MPLS standardization does at last appear to be bearing some revenue-generating fruit.
Probe presents a year-end wrap-up and analysis of the market in its latest Global Internet Infrastructure Markets report. The "End-of-Year Review" details trends and provides forecasts of the routing and switching markets, along with an assessment of both Alcatel's and Cisco's key initiatives. An examination of the access market covers RAS/RAC, CMTS and DSLAM as well as the business environment, including discussions of capex spending and MPLS. For more information, visit www.proberesearch.com.
