IDC offers optical networking predictions for 2003

February 20, 2003--Next generation optical networking will begin to stabilize, a major long-haul DWDM equipment vendor will exit the market, and metro Ethernet will present the strongest revenue growth opportunity in 2003. These are three of the predictions for 2003 outlined in a new IDC study.

Feb 20th, 2003

Next generation optical networking will begin to stabilize, a major long-haul DWDM equipment vendor will exit the market, and metro Ethernet will present the strongest revenue growth opportunity in 2003. These are three of the predictions for optical networking outlined in a new IDC study entitled, "The Optical Networks Crystal Ball: What's in Store for 2003?"

"Absence of growth in optical in 2003 should not signal that this is a market at rest," contends Sterling Perrin, senior research analyst at IDC. "Next-generation optical networking is far from mature and major shifts will likely take place throughout 2003. The events and milestones of 2003 will define the nature of the recovery to follow," he adds.

Other IDC predictions for 2003 include the following:

• Long-haul DWDM will contract again ... but not as badly
• Tunable lasers will become "real"
• Metro ethernet will start to challenge passive optical networks (PON)
• Course wave division multiplexing (CWDM) will challenge DWDM in the metro
• Cisco will make a major optical acquisition

IDC's study, "The Optical Networks Crystal Ball: What's in Store for 2003?", analyzes the major trends that will shape the next-generation optical landscape in 2003 and beyond. The study analyzes the market impacts of each of the predictions and details the rationale behind each choice. For more information, visit the company's Web site at www.idc.com.

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