LightCounting touts 40G and 100G demand growth

In a new report, market research firm LightCounting says that sales of 100-Gbps DWDM line cards will grow to $2.3 billion by 2015. Meanwhile, an emerging market for 40-Gigabit Ethernet and 100-Gigabit Ethernet client-side optical transceiver modules will grow to $380 million by 2015 as well.

The report notes that the dual-polarization quadrature phase-shift keying (DP-QPSK) with coherent detection technology most commonly used for 100-Gbps DWDM line-side transmission provides better spectral efficiency than current 10-Gbps or 40-Gbps techniques. But that’s not the only benefit DP-QPSK/coherent detection will provide, LightCounting asserts. The fact that this technique relies on digital signal processing means that technology developers can leverage this processing power to provide remote real-time monitoring of optical layer performance in terms of span loss, latency, chromatic dispersion, PMD, and pre and post forward error correction BER.

Meanwhile, LightCounting notes that 100G line cards will have a tunable receiver. Under software control, the receiver will be able to select the wavelength channel to use. Some vendors are talking about adding digital control of transponder characteristics that are similar to what software-defined radios bring to RF networks, the market research and analysis firm states in the report. That means that a 100G transponder may ultimately be able to change performance characteristics (like optical channel bandwidth, modulation format, wavelength channel, and transmission rate) to adapt to changing conditions and traffic loads.

Paired with “gridless,” directionless, and colorless ROADMs and management software, these 100-Gbps line cards could enable truly intelligent, configurable optical networks, in LightCounting’s opinion.

The report examines the development of 100G DWDM line-side technology and standards for 100G on both the line side (DWDM) and client side (Ethernet). It looks at trials and initial deployments of 100G technology as well as offerings from system, module, and communications IC suppliers. It addresses the market opportunity for 40 and 100GE in the datacenter and takes a look at some of the activity to develop 100G direct detection alternatives to DP-QPSK with coherent detection. The report also presents LightCounting forecasts for both client-side and line-side 40G and 100G technology as well as an evaluation of current market pricing. Finally, it presents some of the ongoing research in developing optical transmission technology beyond 100G.

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