Coherent 200G+ DWDM grows in next five years while 100G declines: Dell’Oro Group
Rising bandwidth demands and improving technology will see coherent network operators switch from 100-Gbps to 200-Gbps and greater coherent DWDM transmission, according to Dell’Oro Group’s newly released “Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report.” Overall coherent DWDM revenue will reach $16 billion by 2023, the market research firm predicts.
“The 100 Gbps growth cycle is behind us,” commented Jimmy Yu, vice president at Dell’Oro Group. “This doesn’t mean that coherent 100-Gbps wavelengths are no longer needed. It is just that with new 60-Gbaud and soon to be released 90-Gbaud-based line cards, the reach of 200 Gbps and 400 Gbps coherent signals can reach much further and help service providers lower their cost-per-bit. Which we consider excellent reasons to choose 200+ Gbps wavelengths. So, we are predicting 100-Gbps wavelength shipments to decline during the next five years while 200+ Gbps wavelength shipments grow at a 50% compound annual growth rate.”
Along these lines, Yu and Dell’Oro expect 200-Gbps wavelength technology to make up the largest share of shipments in three years. Meanwhile, shipments of 800-Gbps wavelength technology should begin ramping next year.
The overall metro and long-haul DWDM market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5% over the next five years, the report states. Metro will grow at a slightly faster rate than long-haul, according to Dell’Oro. Disaggregated WDM systems will be a hot area within this time frame, with sales of such systems expected to exceed $3 billion by 2023.
The Dell’Oro Group's “Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report” includes tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, and tributary/line or wavelength shipments (by speed up to 600 Gbps). The report tracks DWDM long-haul terrestrial, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers, and optical switch equipment.
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Stephen Hardy | Editorial Director and Associate Publisher, Lightwave
Stephen Hardy is editorial director and associate publisher of Lightwave and Broadband Technology Report, part of the Lighting & Technology Group at Endeavor Business Media. Stephen is responsible for establishing and executing editorial strategy across the both brands’ websites, email newsletters, events, and other information products. He has covered the fiber-optics space for more than 20 years, and communications and technology for more than 35 years. During his tenure, Lightwave has received awards from Folio: and the American Society of Business Press Editors (ASBPE) for editorial excellence. Prior to joining Lightwave in 1997, Stephen worked for Telecommunications magazine and the Journal of Electronic Defense.
Stephen has moderated panels at numerous events, including the Optica Executive Forum, ECOC, and SCTE Cable-Tec Expo. He also is program director for the Lightwave Innovation Reviews and the Diamond Technology Reviews.
He has written numerous articles in all aspects of optical communications and fiber-optic networks, including fiber to the home (FTTH), PON, optical components, DWDM, fiber cables, packet optical transport, optical transceivers, lasers, fiber optic testing, and more.
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