Coherent 200G+ DWDM grows in next five years while 100G declines: Dell’Oro Group

Overall coherent DWDM revenue will reach $16 billion by 2023, the market research firm predicts.

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Rising bandwidth demands and improving technology will see coherent network operators switch from 100-Gbps to 200-Gbps and greater coherent DWDM transmission, according to Dell’Oro Group’s newly released “Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report.” Overall coherent DWDM revenue will reach $16 billion by 2023, the market research firm predicts.

“The 100 Gbps growth cycle is behind us,” commented Jimmy Yu, vice president at Dell’Oro Group. “This doesn’t mean that coherent 100-Gbps wavelengths are no longer needed. It is just that with new 60-Gbaud and soon to be released 90-Gbaud-based line cards, the reach of 200 Gbps and 400 Gbps coherent signals can reach much further and help service providers lower their cost-per-bit. Which we consider excellent reasons to choose 200+ Gbps wavelengths. So, we are predicting 100-Gbps wavelength shipments to decline during the next five years while 200+ Gbps wavelength shipments grow at a 50% compound annual growth rate.”

Along these lines, Yu and Dell’Oro expect 200-Gbps wavelength technology to make up the largest share of shipments in three years. Meanwhile, shipments of 800-Gbps wavelength technology should begin ramping next year.

The overall metro and long-haul DWDM market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5% over the next five years, the report states. Metro will grow at a slightly faster rate than long-haul, according to Dell’Oro. Disaggregated WDM systems will be a hot area within this time frame, with sales of such systems expected to exceed $3 billion by 2023.

The Dell’Oro Group's Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report” includes tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, and tributary/line or wavelength shipments (by speed up to 600 Gbps). The report tracks DWDM long-haul terrestrial, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers, and optical switch equipment.

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For more information on high-speed transmission systems and suppliers, visit the Lightwave Buyer’s Guide.

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