2020 optical transceiver sales expectations ‘not great’ but rebound likely quick: LightCounting

March 23, 2020

While demand for broadband and other communications services jumps as the coronavirus forces employees work from home, the imperative for social distancing and the possibility of economic turmoil might limit the demand for optical modules.

Stephen Hardy

While demand for broadband and other communications services jumps as the coronavirus forces companies to have their employees work from home, the imperative for social distancing and the possibility of economic recession or depression might retard the deployment of optical transceivers this year, says LightCounting in a new Quarterly Market Update. That means that “expectations for transceiver sales in 2020 are not great,” the market research firm said in a note describing the report. Fortunately, any downturn should be short lived, LightCounting expects.

The market research firm says it expects what it calls an “inverted dot com crash” due to the overall economic impact of the coronavirus. “While demand for bandwidth is high, the optical communication industry is likely to experience an inverted dot com or telecom crash of 2001 in 2020: we love all the telecom and dot com companies now, but the market is still crashing,” said LightCounting.

However, once markets improve, optical transceiver sales should bounce back strongly, LightCounting predicts, if not with complete confidence. The company is using the 2009 recession as a model for this effect (see graph above). “Despite the panic in the financial markets, the downturn in optical networking and transceiver demand is likely to be short lived,” wrote the company. “We expect that it will be followed by a very strong recovery, given the new urgency for adding bandwidth across the networking infrastructure. Using the historical data for 2009 is a good template for charting the market swing in 2020. At least we hope so.”

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About the Author

Stephen Hardy | Editorial Director and Associate Publisher, Lightwave

Stephen Hardy is editorial director and associate publisher of Lightwave and Broadband Technology Report, part of the Lighting & Technology Group at Endeavor Business Media. Stephen is responsible for establishing and executing editorial strategy across the both brands’ websites, email newsletters, events, and other information products. He has covered the fiber-optics space for more than 20 years, and communications and technology for more than 35 years. During his tenure, Lightwave has received awards from Folio: and the American Society of Business Press Editors (ASBPE) for editorial excellence. Prior to joining Lightwave in 1997, Stephen worked for Telecommunications magazine and the Journal of Electronic Defense.

Stephen has moderated panels at numerous events, including the Optica Executive Forum, ECOC, and SCTE Cable-Tec Expo. He also is program director for the Lightwave Innovation Reviews and the Diamond Technology Reviews.

He has written numerous articles in all aspects of optical communications and fiber-optic networks, including fiber to the home (FTTH), PON, optical components, DWDM, fiber cables, packet optical transport, optical transceivers, lasers, fiber optic testing, and more.

You can connect with Stephen on LinkedIn as well as Twitter.