Domestic fiber production volume in China is expected to rise from 5.8 million fiber-km in 2000 to 16.4 million fiber-km by 2005, a 27% compound annual growth rate, says a new report from KMI Research (Providence, RI).
KMI Analysts predict that China will use about 16 million fiber-km from overseas suppliers each year between 2001 and 2005. Domestic fiber suppliers provided China with 7 million fiber-km in 2001, rising to 16 million by 2005. China has more than 200 fiber-optic cable manufacturers; collectively, they used only 22% of their cabling capacity in 2001.
Continuing deregulation and accession into the World Trade Organization will accelerate China's fiber-optic network expansion beyond the 10% annual growth it has experienced in the last decade, claims the report.
Fiber-optic cable deployment in China, among all carriers and expressed in cumulative route kilometers, grew nearly four-fold to 2.2 million route-km over the five year forecast period, up from 575,700 route-km in 1996. Deployment is forecast to reach 4.1 million route-km in 2005.
China had installed a cumulative 8.7 million fiber-km by 1996. The installed base grew to 36 million fiber-km in 2000 and will rise to 102 million fiber-km by 2005. Fiber deployment will continue in the next five years at a compound annual growth rate of 11%.
Most carriers plan to expand their networks, especially at the local access level. Annual demand for fiber for national long-haul networks will decrease over the forecast period, but demand for intra-provincial, local access network fiber is expected to grow.
KMI's report, "Optical Fiber and Fiberoptic Cable Markets in China--Carrier Profiles and Market Forecasts," forecasts fiber deployment, profiles carriers, and provides details on the production volume and capacity of manufacturers in this region. For more information, visit the company's Web site at www.kmicorp.com.