FEBRUARY 4, 2008 -- Sales of optical transceivers totaled over $2 billion in 2007, increasing at a rate of 10 percent annually, according to the latest Transceiver Market Forecast from LightCounting (search for LightCounting). The research firm forecasts global transceiver sales will grow steadily at 7 percent compounded annual growth rate -- reaching $2.8 billion by 2011. Wide adoption of high-speed 10- and 40-Gbit/sec interfaces in telecom and enterprise networks along with global FTTx deployments will predominately drive this growth.
"The optical transceiver market will continue to grow steadily, but more slowly than the double-digit growth rate of the past two years," states Dr. Vladimir Kozlov, founder of LightCounting. "Based on data collected through extensive vendor participation, we predict this slower growth rate will result from increased pricing pressures, due largely to an expanding market share of lower cost 10-Gbit/sec modules such as XFP and SFP+ transceivers, and from slowed growth in transceiver sales volumes, due to a slowdown in networking equipment sales."
LightCounting forecasts moderate market growth rates for 2008 to 2011 due to increasing pricing pressures and limited growth in sales volumes for some product categories. The report targets the three main reasons for increasing price pressures. Even if total networking equipment sales decline, LightCounting expects that the incremental addition of optical interfaces over the next several years will continue to fuel a steadily growing market for optical transceivers.
The LightCounting Transceiver Market Forecast presents historical data from 2005 to 2007 and a market forecast through 2011 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, and FTTx transceivers and optical interconnects, sorted into more than 100 product categories, including SFP+ and next-generation PON, and by data rates spanning OC-3 to OC-768. The report includes sales data for 2005 to 2007 from 30 transceiver vendors, including 21 that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast for 2008 to 2011 uses a model correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems.