Driven by ongoing DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber expansion by cable and fiber providers, the broadband equipment community is set to benefit from a three-year spending cycle. 

Dell’Oro Group forecasts that the Broadband Access Equipment market will grow at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent from 2026 to 2030.

Despite the market potential, Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell'Oro Group, cautioned that component shortages are driving increases in customer premises equipment costs that could interrupt expansion plans.

Increasing bill-of-materials (BOM) costs for residential Customer Premises Equipment (CPE)—such as advanced fiber and cable gateways—are driving component cost inflation and widening the gap between homes passed by broadband infrastructure and homes connected.

"Large-scale DOCSIS 4.0 and XGS-PON upgrade and expansion projects are well underway, though the increasing bill-of-materials costs for residential CPE threaten to grow gaps in homes further passed and connected," said Jeff Heynen, Vice President of Broadband Access and Home Networking market research at Dell’Oro Group.

XGS-PON deployments accelerate

Led by Tier 1 players AT&T and Verizon, both of which are aggressively expanding their fiber networks through a mixture of organic growth and targeted acquisitions, XGS-PON deployments continue to accelerate.

AT&T and Verizon have set a high bar for fiber broadband deployments.

Having added over 1 million fiber locations in the second quarter, AT&T plans to build 8 million new fiber locations this year, including 4 million from the Lumen acquisition. It is also targeting 40 million by 2026 and 60 million by 2030.

Fellow ILEC Verizon, which completed its acquisition of Frontier earlier this year, has set a goal to expand not only its fiber footprint within and outside of its traditional wireline footprint.

After announcing an agreement with Eaton Fiber last October, Eaton Fiber secured a $1.5 billion investment, supported by the acquisition of Ripple Fiber, bringing Verizon fiber broadband to over a million locations outside its current fiber footprint.

T-Mobile is forming a 50/50 joint venture with Oak Hill Capital to acquire a 50% stake in GoNetspeed and Greenlight Networks. This $2 billion investment expands T-Mobile's high-speed fiber footprint (branded as T-Fiber) across the Northeast and other regional markets.

Based on these aggressive rollout schedules, Dell’Oro forecasts that PON equipment revenue is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent from 2026 to 2030, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA, as well as FTTR (Fiber to the Room) deployments in China.

Cable’s DOCSIS 4.0, fiber momentum

As cable operators move toward DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments, suppliers will benefit from these spending patterns.

In 2026, Dell’Oro expects Cable Outside Plant Equipment revenues to increase 20 percent year-over-year (Y/Y), mainly due to accelerated deployment of new 1.8 GHz amplifiers and new DAA and GAP (Generic Access Platform) Nodes to support Remote PHY and Remote OLT deployments.

Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs) “is expected to peak in 2028 and 2029, as operators continue their DOCSIS 4.0 and early fiber deployments.”

From a geographic point of view, North America will lead spending on Cable Outside Plant Equipment revenue, as cable operators in other regions move ahead with either DOCSIS 3.1 or overbuilding HFC networks with fiber.

The research firm expects Global Cable Outside Plant Equipment revenues to peak in 2027, when the largest number of tier one operators in North America are expected to be in the middle of their amplifier, node, and passives upgrades for mid- and high-split DOCSIS 3.1 and DOCSIS 4.0 service deployment.

The market will continue to increase, peaking in 2027, as operators continue to add more capacity and resilience through smart amplifiers and nodes.

One of the benefits of this deployment cycle is that providers will have more visibility into network performance. Nearly 10 million of the new amplifiers expected to be deployed during this cycle will have transponders or DOCSIS modems onboard to improve fault detection and resolution capabilities dramatically.

“2025 was the first of a four-year spending cycle to boost broadband speeds, while also dramatically improving the reliability and PNM (Proactive Network Maintenance) capabilities of their outside plant,” said Heynen. “These upgrades will result in a significant increase in spending on optical nodes, amplifiers, and passive equipment, including taps and hardline splitters, through 2028.”