The total revenues from 2011 to 2020 for the worldwide OTN cross-connect market will reach roughly $3.8 billion, according to a recent Telecom Pragmatics report. Sales are projected to peak at close to $700 million in 2017. Moreover, the businesses of Tellabs and Ciena combined will represent 75% of the market in 2015.
According to the study , the key question is to what extent OTN switching will be transitional: How long is it going to be before networks become all-IP architectures for everything? The industry has underestimated the life of such technologies and services; it is not out of the question that OTN networks will be in use well beyond the forecasted period, says a company representative.
The report further states: The first true OTN battleground will be in Asia, likely mainly China, in which Huawei will get an early boost. While Alcatel-Lucent will almost undoubtedly remain in the OTN game, the market views it as more of router company now and not as big a transport or cross-connect vendor. There will likely be other players, as well, that may get a piece of the market, including Ericsson.
Telecom Pragmatics is an independent research firm specializing in telecommunications markets and related technologies since 2003. Authors of the Telecom Pragmatics report include Sam Greenholtz, Mark Lutkowitz, and David Gross.