Market research firm LightCounting expects double-digital sales growth for optics through 2027, according to its newly released optical components forecast. Growth in demand for optical transceivers, particularly for DWDM and Ethernet applications, will provide the most momentum during the forecast period, the company says.
LightCounting expects a 12% CAGR in 2022-2027, despite current supply chain constraints. This includes a 17% forecasted climb in optical transceiver revenues this year, which continues a growth trend seen in 2020 (9%) and 2021 (17%) after a hiccup in 2019 (see “Ethernet transceiver sales to decline 18% in 2019: LightCounting”). The market research firm notes that supply chain issues probably have led to stockpiling among transceiver users as well as moderated typical price declines; these factors likely contributed to the double-digit improvement seen last year.
While DWDM, Ethernet, and wireless applications have fueled increased demand over the past few years, LightCounting expects the wireless segment to wane during the forecast period. Analysts at the company point to price reductions and cyclical declines in unit shipments as the cause of comparative weakness in the wireless sector through 2027. Meanwhile, sales of optical interconnects, particularly active optical cables (AOCs), will grow at a 10% CAGR over the next 5 years, LightCounting believes.
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